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Tag Archives: 市场
选择的自由
我不是法学出生,但是凭直觉我以为,选择的自由是人身自由最基本的要素。 每次在理解一些基本的经济学的要素时,总觉得自己应该更多的了解目前法学的基本概念。以便自己论述的根基不是无本之木。真应该好好了解一下。 央视说星巴克贵,有病,充分竞争的行业,贵不贵关你屁事。 如果央视不是国家的“喉舌”,他随便怎么报道也没关系,星巴克你可以不买,央视自然也可以不看。 但是以国家权力干涉市场竞争,有病。 想了很多,写不出来了
对中国股市的认识
中国股市最近一年的走法很不一样,实际上如果说具体点,是刘士余上台之后,股市的表现和以前很不一样。 国内股市一直被称为赌场,都是筹码在博弈,比如所谓的填权行情,高送转行情,所谓的利好出尽,都是对其博弈价值的一种总结。 但是其有没有内在的价值逻辑呢,我认为,对企业价值真正有深入研究,而不是只看一个PE的人,应该是认可部分A股的价值逻辑的。这里不说什么老板电器,美的集团,这种成长股逻辑,这里用工商银行举例。今天一大波银行在创历史新高,站在今天的时间点上,这是不是因为大家在博弈漂亮50呢。 我认为不是,这一轮供给侧改革,社会总体效应不知道怎么样,但是原材料价格飞涨,扎扎实实救活了一大批国企,于此同时,很多银行的坏账拨备,就不在天然的低于可能的坏债损失了。 而此前四大行全面的PB低于1,就是因为对于其实际坏债,市场认为要超过账面值的。因此起码这一波银行的上涨,是符合价值逻辑的。 这种价值逻辑,却是需要去思考,厘清,并预测的。