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Meta
P2P之后
最近P2P平台纷纷暴雷,除了那些一眼即可看穿的庞氏平台外,不少貌似正规的也出现呢什么老板跑路,良性清盘之类的说法。老板跑路这种恶意的就不多说了,这里良性清盘,也有可能确实是在拖延时间,但我认为遇到了流动性危机的可能性比较大。
这里就岔开说一句,为什么会遇到流动性危机。如果平台没有资金池,不能立即体现,按理来说,就不存在流动性问题,因为平台只是信息中介,借款方违约了,那最终还是要找借款人的麻烦。但实际上几乎没有P2P平台是这样操作的,因为投资人又不是专业机构在买债券,哪里看得出来某笔投资会不会违约。投P2P的说实话,都是些鸡贼的人,既要高息,又要保本,要是投资的本金初期就会有损失,这些人是不可能用这些平台的。
如此,实际上这些平台本质上采用的是以自有资金担保的保证本金(利息)模式,如果借款方违约,这些平台就需要处置这些资产,偿还投资者本金利息。由于平台实际上的角色错位,导致了就出现了流动性风险了。
而像小赢理财这样,找了众安保险给自己兜底,反而将自己搞成了独立第三方,这样看上去倒是没有流动性问题了。
不过这里想讨论的是,投资者的钱从P2P出来之后,会去哪里。这些资金,实际上是低风险承受能力,同时,流动性又非常强。
更关心的是,这些钱会不会到股市里面去,我觉得是有可能的,但是前提是,股市要不跌了,这是后面的事情。当下,这笔钱,可能还是进入头部平台,也就是陆金所这里面了,券商和银行理财也能承接小部分吧。