Excel小技巧

先记一个数组公式的输入方法:先选择好一系列结果要出现的单元格,然后输入公式,最后按ctrl+shift+enter就可以把公式输入进去了。

还有一个excel的画图技巧,在一张图里面同时绘制折线图和柱状图。

image

其实说起来很简单,在图的数据区域右击,选择数据区域添加数据,注意水平轴标签不要动它。然后要改变的曲线上右击,设置数据系列格式,选择次坐标轴,然后就会出现一个新的坐标轴。这个时候,你右击曲线,更改图表类型,就可以了。

其实说起来步骤不多,但是如果没做过的话,改起来还是十分费劲的,比如上图右边那个坐标轴我都不知道怎么移到中间。

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金融仿真笔记(3)

先写一段感慨。今天参加一个CFA下面的什么比赛的校内面试,要用口语。自己在读准备的材料的时候,就觉得自己口语实在是太挫了,根本没办法见人,以前还不觉得,自我感觉一般,也不算很屎,今天这方,又让自己大受打击,下定决心要好好练练口语。

记得以前参加欧莱雅的一个比赛的时候,也是要英语交流,当时就觉得自己屎的不行,但后来因为考研,也没怎么去管这件事,今天这个刺激,又让自己痛下决心,不能再失去这个机会了。

刚才还读了下自己准备的材料,读自己是没有太大问题的,但自己能力缺失实在presentation的时候,显然不是读书就行了,关键是要把自己的思想用英文表述出来,在这个方面,自己差了很多,这个按我的理解就是要有一种英文的思维方式,想到的思维元素用英文组织起来,这方面的能力我还是差了不少,而且在这个专业方面的英语能力我也不行,很多专业知识用汉语都说得不顺畅,那还能用英语说好。

最后还是那一句,自己能力不行,要努力,要进步。

书归正传

1.BOLLING(ASSET,SAMPLES,ALPHA,WIDTH),绘制布林线,还有种说法叫压力线,asset就是数据集,simple是计算移动平均的样本数量。

bolling line

其中如果采用[mav,uband,lband]=BOLLING(ASSET,SAMPLES,ALPHA,WIDTH),可以得到一些列值

2.固定收益的一些列公式

present value:Pv=Pt(1+r%)t

future value:Fv=Pt(1+r%)T-t

这里有两个函数:fvfix,pvfix,是求固定期限偿付的远期和现值。

还有变动的,fvvar,pvvar。PVVAR  变动现金流的现值。.PV = pvvar(CF, RATE, DF)。CF是现金流向量,包括为负的初始值。DF可以指定现金流的发生日期。PV 就是这一系列现金流的净现值了。FV就是类似的东西了,就是多了可以指定现金流发生。

IRR 内部收益率:R = IRR(CF),r = irr([-100000 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000]);xirr就是计算变动现金流流发生日期下的内部收益率了。注意这里的第一个值也是负值。

3有个函数直接求债券价格和收益率,

[Price, AccruedInt] = bndprice(Yield, CouponRate, Settle, Maturity);

Yield = bndyield(Price, CouponRate, Settle, Maturity)里面的参数还是挺复杂的,要细细看看。另外一个技巧吧,算两个日期间的天数datenum(‘2008/12/1’)-datenum(‘2010/07/12’),这样就能直接得到天数了。

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EQUITY VALUATION AND ANALYSIS ON MIDEA

Result of equity valuation ( Based on Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF)):

company value

103200387941.61

Yuan

Total equity:

2,080,176,851.00

Share

share value

49.61

Yuan

Recommendation: BUY

 

Introduction:

Founded in 1968, Midea is renowned as a sizeable conglomerate that specializes in the manufacturing of household appliances and sets foot in relevant fields of real estates and logistics. For the past 20 years or so, Midea has been regulating its strategies and tactics in face of changes in the market, and has developed from a local brand with a single product to an international one engaged in multiple sectors.

Since the arrival of the new millennium, Midea maintains a growth rate of 35% annually. In 2009, sales revenue of Midea increased by 4.34% and hit a record of 47 billion Yuan, while total profit went up by 56.8% to 1.9 billion Yuan. In the assessment of ChinaMost Valuable Brands 2009, brand value of Midea ranks No.6 by surging to 4.5 billion Yuan.

 

Major Business:

Midea holds the largest and most complete production chains for air-conditioner, refrigerator, microwave oven, small home appliances and kitchen utensil groups in China. Its core products include AC, washing machine, electric cooker, small household appliances and other home hold appliance products, as well as other supporting products, such as compressor, electric motor, magnetron and transformer.

Major Business and Service

Name

Sales Revenue(Yuan)

Share of the total income

Air Conditioning and Parts

25,854,895,900

66.25%

Refrigerators and parts

5,602,475,100

14.36%

Washing machines and parts

48,344,004,800

12.39%

 

Basic information of the stock

Total equity:

2,080,176,851 Shares

Tradable share

2,077,775,054 Shares

Percentage of the tradable share:

99.88%

Earnings per share:

0.9700 Yuan (09)

Net assets per share:

4.54 Yuan (09)

Rate of return:

20.02%

 

Key factor on the equity valuation:

1. β calculated : β is a main parameters in CAPM to measure the systematic risk of the asset. The β of midea is 0.92, which means the midea has a high correlation with the market. The R2 is 0.32, meaning a low credibility of the result.   

 

2 . Risk premium

The stock market in China has a high volatility. As the following table shows, the market return changes easily, as well as the risk premium. the world stock market has a tremendous drop in 2007,so I kick off the red data when I calculate the risk premium.

Year

Shanghai Stock Exchange

market return

risk-free rate

Risk premium

1999

1144.89

 

 

 

2000

1368.69

19.55%

2.735%

16.81%

2001

2077.08

51.76%

2.946%

48.81%

2002

1643.49

-20.87%

2.182%

-23.06%

2003

1347.43

-18.01%

2.650%

-20.66%

2004

1492.72

10.78%

4.023%

6.76%

2005

1260.78

-15.54%

3.370%

-18.91%

2006

1163.88

-7.69%

2.910%

-10.60%

2007

2728.19

134.40%

2.910%

131.49%

2008

5265

92.99%

3.400%

89.59%

2009

1849.02

-64.88%

3.40%

-68.28%

2010

3289.75

77.92%

3.40%

74.52%

Average

 

 

3.053%

29.48%

 

3. WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)

WACC= Claim cost + Equity cost= Loaning rate +CAPM

Equity cost =3.05%+ 0.92*29.48%=30.17%.

Claim cost =5.31 %*( 1-25%)

Asset-liability ratio: 59.80% (2009)

WACC=14.52%

 

4. Equity valuation

Value per share=49.61Yuan

2007/12/28 the share price is 14.99 Yuan

Recommendation: BUY

 

Data sources:

Annual Report of midea (http://www.midea.com.cn);

Wind Info (http://www.wind.com.cn);

 

 

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