先写一段感慨。今天参加一个CFA下面的什么比赛的校内面试,要用口语。自己在读准备的材料的时候,就觉得自己口语实在是太挫了,根本没办法见人,以前还不觉得,自我感觉一般,也不算很屎,今天这方,又让自己大受打击,下定决心要好好练练口语。
记得以前参加欧莱雅的一个比赛的时候,也是要英语交流,当时就觉得自己屎的不行,但后来因为考研,也没怎么去管这件事,今天这个刺激,又让自己痛下决心,不能再失去这个机会了。
刚才还读了下自己准备的材料,读自己是没有太大问题的,但自己能力缺失实在presentation的时候,显然不是读书就行了,关键是要把自己的思想用英文表述出来,在这个方面,自己差了很多,这个按我的理解就是要有一种英文的思维方式,想到的思维元素用英文组织起来,这方面的能力我还是差了不少,而且在这个专业方面的英语能力我也不行,很多专业知识用汉语都说得不顺畅,那还能用英语说好。
最后还是那一句,自己能力不行,要努力,要进步。
书归正传
1.BOLLING(ASSET,SAMPLES,ALPHA,WIDTH),绘制布林线,还有种说法叫压力线,asset就是数据集,simple是计算移动平均的样本数量。

其中如果采用[mav,uband,lband]=BOLLING(ASSET,SAMPLES,ALPHA,WIDTH),可以得到一些列值
2.固定收益的一些列公式
present value:Pv=Pt(1+r%)t
future value:Fv=Pt(1+r%)T-t
这里有两个函数:fvfix,pvfix,是求固定期限偿付的远期和现值。
还有变动的,fvvar,pvvar。PVVAR 变动现金流的现值。.PV = pvvar(CF, RATE, DF)。CF是现金流向量,包括为负的初始值。DF可以指定现金流的发生日期。PV 就是这一系列现金流的净现值了。FV就是类似的东西了,就是多了可以指定现金流发生。
IRR 内部收益率:R = IRR(CF),r = irr([-100000 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000]);xirr就是计算变动现金流流发生日期下的内部收益率了。注意这里的第一个值也是负值。
3有个函数直接求债券价格和收益率,
[Price, AccruedInt] = bndprice(Yield, CouponRate, Settle, Maturity);
Yield = bndyield(Price, CouponRate, Settle, Maturity)里面的参数还是挺复杂的,要细细看看。另外一个技巧吧,算两个日期间的天数datenum(‘2008/12/1’)-datenum(‘2010/07/12’),这样就能直接得到天数了。
EQUITY VALUATION AND ANALYSIS ON MIDEA
Result of equity valuation ( Based on Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF)):
company value
103200387941.61
Yuan
Total equity:
2,080,176,851.00
Share
share value
49.61
Yuan
Recommendation: BUY
Introduction:
Founded in 1968, Midea is renowned as a sizeable conglomerate that specializes in the manufacturing of household appliances and sets foot in relevant fields of real estates and logistics. For the past 20 years or so, Midea has been regulating its strategies and tactics in face of changes in the market, and has developed from a local brand with a single product to an international one engaged in multiple sectors.
Since the arrival of the new millennium, Midea maintains a growth rate of 35% annually. In 2009, sales revenue of Midea increased by 4.34% and hit a record of 47 billion Yuan, while total profit went up by 56.8% to 1.9 billion Yuan. In the assessment of ChinaMost Valuable Brands 2009, brand value of Midea ranks No.6 by surging to 4.5 billion Yuan.
Major Business:
Midea holds the largest and most complete production chains for air-conditioner, refrigerator, microwave oven, small home appliances and kitchen utensil groups in China. Its core products include AC, washing machine, electric cooker, small household appliances and other home hold appliance products, as well as other supporting products, such as compressor, electric motor, magnetron and transformer.
Major Business and Service
Name
Sales Revenue(Yuan)
Share of the total income
Air Conditioning and Parts
25,854,895,900
66.25%
Refrigerators and parts
5,602,475,100
14.36%
Washing machines and parts
48,344,004,800
12.39%
Basic information of the stock
Total equity:
2,080,176,851 Shares
Tradable share :
2,077,775,054 Shares
Percentage of the tradable share:
99.88%
Earnings per share:
0.9700 Yuan (09)
Net assets per share:
4.54 Yuan (09)
Rate of return:
20.02%
Key factor on the equity valuation:
1. β calculated : β is a main parameters in CAPM to measure the systematic risk of the asset. The β of midea is 0.92, which means the midea has a high correlation with the market. The R2 is 0.32, meaning a low credibility of the result.
2 . Risk premium
The stock market in China has a high volatility. As the following table shows, the market return changes easily, as well as the risk premium. the world stock market has a tremendous drop in 2007,so I kick off the red data when I calculate the risk premium.
Year
Shanghai Stock Exchange
market return
risk-free rate
Risk premium
1999
1144.89
2000
1368.69
19.55%
2.735%
16.81%
2001
2077.08
51.76%
2.946%
48.81%
2002
1643.49
-20.87%
2.182%
-23.06%
2003
1347.43
-18.01%
2.650%
-20.66%
2004
1492.72
10.78%
4.023%
6.76%
2005
1260.78
-15.54%
3.370%
-18.91%
2006
1163.88
-7.69%
2.910%
-10.60%
2007
2728.19
134.40%
2.910%
131.49%
2008
5265
92.99%
3.400%
89.59%
2009
1849.02
-64.88%
3.40%
-68.28%
2010
3289.75
77.92%
3.40%
74.52%
Average
3.053%
29.48%
3. WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)
WACC= Claim cost + Equity cost= Loaning rate +CAPM
Equity cost =3.05%+ 0.92*29.48%=30.17%.
Claim cost =5.31 %*( 1-25%)
Asset-liability ratio: 59.80% (2009)
WACC=14.52%
4. Equity valuation
Value per share=49.61Yuan
2007/12/28 , the share price is 14.99 Yuan
Recommendation: BUY
Data sources:
Annual Report of midea (http://www.midea.com.cn);
Wind Info (http://www.wind.com.cn);